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جنبش عدم تعهد و خلع سلاح هسته ای: موضع سیاسی و رفتار

حسین شریفی تارازکوهی، ایمان خسروی

Hossein Sharifi Tarazkouhi, Iman Khosravi

The emergence of nuclear weapons as a new actor in international relations has introduced a new area in the international security arena. Since the appearance of these weapons, there have been increasing efforts to limit and destroy them in order to achieve global peace in the framework of disarmament and centered around the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Along with the emergence of the non-proliferation system and the current trend, achieving nuclear disarmament has turned into an international demand, especially for the Non-Aligned Movement member states. The present study seeks to analyze the influence of the Non-Aligned Movement on disarmament in the framework of the mentioned Treaty. To this end, and based on the Neoliberal Institutionalism theory, this article studies the Non-Aligned Movement’s stance toward nuclear disarmament in the framework of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the Review Conferences of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The study is written according to the descriptive-analytical method. The findings suggest that despite its inefficient influence prior to the 1995 Review and Extension Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the Non-Aligned Movement, as a major actor in international peace and security, has gained an influential position in the negotiations about the formation of the trends related to nuclear disarmament in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Full Text Article

۰ نظر ۰۱ شهریور ۹۶ ، ۱۷:۳۰
اسفندیار خدایی

تحریمهای ایران در روابط آمریکا و چین؛  نویسنده: اسفندیار خدایی؛ انتشارات لمبرت آلمان، 2017

Book: Iran Sanctions in US-China Relations; by Esfandiar Khodaee, 2017

 لینک خرید کتاب      Link

اسفندیار خدایی

۰ نظر ۱۶ مرداد ۹۶ ، ۰۹:۵۵
اسفندیار خدایی

دکتر عباس مصلی نژاد، دانشگاه تهران

The group calling itself the Islamic State poses a grave threat, not just to Iraq and Syria but to the region more broadly and to the United States, as well as its global coalition partners. A deadly and adaptive foe, the Islamic State seemed to come out of nowhere in June 2014, when it conquered Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city. However, the Islamic State of today is the direct descendant of a group that Iraq, the United States, and their partners once fought as al-Qaida in Iraq and then as the Islamic State of Iraq. Analysts and specialists had already spent years studying the group and actually knew quite a bit about it: how it financed and organized itself, how it established control, how it responded to airpower, and what its ultimate goals were. The Republican meme is that every problem, including in the Middle East, is Barack Obama’s fault. Although emphasizing independence and self-reliance for America, they deny responsibility and accountability for their party. There are 2 approaches about the rise and function of ISIS. Conservative groups argue that US attack against Iraq’s Saddam Hussein on 2003 was “brilliant, heroic, and costly” success. The competitive approaches emphasis on “why was the success of the surge followed by a withdrawal from Iraq, leaving not even the residual force that commanders and the joint chiefs knew was necessary? The fact shows that US elites have the creation of ISIS. If US had kept the 10,000 troop commitment that was there for the President to negotiate and to agree with, we probably wouldn’t have ISIS right now”. The content and orientation of this article is based on Competitive approaches about rise and security function of ISIS. The basic question is “Why ISIS group rise and strength in Iraq and Syria?” The hypothesis of this article related “balancing of power and threats competitive regional and structural countries”. The result of article explained that Regional security in Middle East and Persian Gulf is based on proxy war, which conducted by Saudi Arabia and enforced by violence and chaos extremist groups as well as ISIS. Full Text of the Article

۰ نظر ۰۴ ارديبهشت ۹۶ ، ۰۹:۴۷
اسفندیار خدایی

دکتر محمد مرندی، مهرداد حلال خور؛ دانشگاه تهران، دانشکده مطالعات جهان

U.S foreign policy toward Iran had been so uncertain and variable since the beginning of this relation, but alongside fluctuations, some kind of consistency is distinguishable. Until the Islamic revolution of 1979by the Iranian people, Iran was playing a major role in the U.S. anti-communist strategy in the Middle East.  U.S grand strategy was based on its confrontation with USSR and Iran was the key for controlling the Middle East and process of underpinning Iran’s power as a liberal ally in the region was at the core of U.S considerations in Iran. After the 1979 revolution, Iran’s priority had changed as a regional actor and it no longer identified itself as a member in the Western coalition based on American foreign policy. On the other hand, U.S. also stopped to identify Iran as a friend and started to demonize the new role Iran was playing in the Middle East and the world.  By having these trends in mind, a very fundamental, important question strikes the mind: Did U.S has a turning point in its foreign policy toward Iran after the 1979 or the principle of its foreign policy was fixed and only tactical changes occurred? In order to answer this question I’m going to examine the history of U.S foreign policy toward Iran, particularly the post-revolutionary period. This analysis will be conducted according to the Copenhagen school definition of security and concept of securitization. This theoretical frame work brought us a comprehensive understanding of security and also a relative, useful categorization of security strategy in foreign policy. Different methodological approaches could be used in these frameworks but in this research I have used the discourse analysis method to explore the subject of research. Conclusion of the research shows us that American strategy toward Iran covers both permanent and variable factors but the permanent element was the key and variable factors made changes only in tactical level. U.S foreign policy was basically directed toward securitizing Iran but the world system, regional and national events also made it more powerful. It means that after the Islamic revolution of Iran, U.S. has continuously made an attempt in persuading other actors to securitize Iran. Before the Cold War, this securitization was in a low level but after the Cold War it can be classified as a high-securitization. Full Text of the Article

۰ نظر ۳۰ فروردين ۹۶ ، ۰۹:۲۲
اسفندیار خدایی

دکتر عباس مصلی نژاد، دانشگاه تهران

As it looks at the region, Trump can see three central challenges facing the Middle East, working together to create the horrible brew we're now dealing with. The first challenge is the security vacuums in places like Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen that followed the collapse of some of these Arab republics. These vacuums are highly problematic, setting the conditions for extremism. They are where extremists organize and plan attacks, and where refugees originate. A lot of these destabilizing problems, then affect the entire region. Trump's election is a massive setback for humanitarian issues, in fact, many welcome him, despite his rhetoric on Muslims, women and minorities. Most troubling, however, is that many of U.S questions about his approach to the Middle East cannot be answered right now because he literally has no experience in foreign policy. The international community has no idea what to expect from Trump, and such diplomatic uncertainty is a humbling experience at best. Trump needs to reassure its nation's allies before he becomes president; assurances and commitments are especially crucial when times are tough, as they are now. NATO is important, but so are the Sunni Arab states. Given that one of Trump's few clear aims is to destroy the Islamic State, it is absolutely imperative that Saudi Arabia and similar countries be involved, since the group's ideology cannot be discredited without them. The expectation that "Trump as president" will be starkly different from "Trump as candidate" is a false hope at best. Saudi Arabia should be ready for some surprises, likely in the form of negative rhetoric from the Trump administration. Ultimately, the kingdom needs to create an alliance of Sunni countries to serve as a bulwark against a potentially anti-Sunni Trump. While Trump has long signaled a desire to get out of the Middle East, candidates often flip positions when they face difficult decisions as president. Yet the ultimate outcome of any given regional crisis will depend heavily on the cabinet members and advisors surrounding him. Whatever the case, given the region's current situation the Palestinians more divided than ever, the Iranians bent on regional expansion, and the Saudis in the midst of a "revolution disguised as economic reform" U.S historical allies in Israel and the Sunni Arab countries need a strong America now more than ever. Full Text of the Article

۰ نظر ۲۹ فروردين ۹۶ ، ۰۹:۱۶
اسفندیار خدایی

دکتر زهره پوستینچی

Rebalancing of Power is one of the most important subjects for international and national security in U.S policy toward Iran and other regional actors. President Trump attempts to change U.S regional policy based on offshore balancing in Persian Gulf and Middle East. This approach concentrated on promotes U.S national interest. Trump’s policy will effect on regional structure of international politics. Barak Obama policy toward Iran concentrated on negotiation and engagement process for promote Iran’s position in regional and international politics. Obama foreign policy team argues that politics and international relations depended on Iran’s role in regional balancing of power. Geopolitical approaches emphasized on Trump interaction of geography and strategy. Trump’s team argues that defense and security policy depended on how U.S policy and regional countries collaborates their goals and interests. Trump’s foreign policy team has systematically tried, significant rapprochement among the Persian Gulf states on the issue of security almost impossible. For these reasons, a collective regionally crafted security arrangement that includes littoral states on Iran.  Full Text

۰ نظر ۲۸ فروردين ۹۶ ، ۱۴:۱۶
اسفندیار خدایی

یکصد سال درآمد ایران از نفت: یک نعمت یا یک نقمت

نویسندگان: کامیار محدث از دانشگاه کمبریج انگلستان ؛ هاشم پسران دانشگاه کالیفرنیای جنوبی

Kamiar Mohaddes; Faculty of Economics and Girton College, University of Cambridge, UK

M. Hashem Pesaran; Department of Economics, University of Southern California, USA, and Trinity College, Cambridge, UK

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of oil revenues on the Iranian economy over the past hundred years, spanning the period 1908-2010. It is shown that although oil has been produced in Iran over a very long period, its importance in the Iranian economy was relatively small up until the early 1960s. It is argued that oil income has been both a blessing and a curse. Oil revenues when managed appropriately are a blessing, but their volatility (which in Iran is much higher than oil price volatility) can have adverse effects on real output, through excessively high and persistent levels of inflation. Lack of appropriate institutions and policy mechanisms which act as shock absorbers in the face of high levels of oil revenue volatility have also become a drag on real output. In order to promote growth, policies should be devised to control inflation; to serve as shock absorbers negating the adverse effects of oil revenue volatility; to reduce rent seeking activities; and to prevent excessive dependence of government finances on oil income. Full Text of the Article

۰ نظر ۲۶ اسفند ۹۵ ، ۲۱:۰۷
اسفندیار خدایی

دکتر محمدجواد ظریف، وزیر امور خارجه جمهوری اسلامی ایران؛ زمستان 95

مقاله علمی پژوهشی در مجله Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs

Mohammad Javad Zarif

Much is being articulated today about the formidable challenge presented to the global community by terrorism and extremism, and on the approaches to combat and contain—and hopefully eradicate—them. Regardless of where each state stands on these twin challenges, and whatever the quintessence of the official policy of this or that country, the international community in its entirety shares the common conviction that these problems need to be addressed urgently. The global community must be rid of them as effectively as possible, and I doubt the exigency of the challenging task before us all is in any question. The twin problems of terrorism and extremism, far beyond the never-ending polemics among politicians, stand out as the natural outcome of intrinsic failings in the current (and recent) international situation. They are neither confined to any part of the world, are exclusive to one religion, nor can they be combated on a regional basis and then only through heavy reliance on military hardware. After a decade-and-a-half of wholesale failure in combating post-9/11 terrorism, ugly realities on the ground push us to look at these challenges with open eyes—without illusions or indeed self-delusion. It should have become all too clear by now that a successful, effective fight against these two cancerous phenomena calls for a comprehensive approach and a multi-pronged strategy which depends, first and foremost, on a sober understanding and recognition of their enabling social, cultural, economic and global conditions. Full Text of the Article
۰ نظر ۱۵ بهمن ۹۵ ، ۱۰:۲۰
اسفندیار خدایی

توحید اسدی، دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات آمریکا، دانشگاه تهران

Tohid Asadi, University of Tehran

With numerous shared aspects, philosophy and law are two distinct  but closely interrelated disciplines. With that said, the present paper aims to address the impact of Lockean philosophical inclinations on the process of the US Constitution development by means of textual and historical analysis. In so doing, attention is directed towards the influence of Lockean philosophy upon the Founding Fathers, particularly through scrutinizing the writings of the figures playing leading roles in the procedure of drafting the Constitution. Locke’s natural approach to law, and to citizen rights and liberties in particular, is among the most outstanding sphere of influence put upon the examined figures. From adoption of the contract theories for justifying their break from England, to taking a natural approach in their dealing with the rights to life, liberty, and property, the Founding Fathers have been under influence of Locke’s epistemological principles and conceptions. This study concludes based upon the investigated materials and historical context that the American Founding Fathers have extensively employed Lockean notions at legal philosophy level in drafting the Constitution.

Full Text of the Article

۰ نظر ۲۲ آذر ۹۵ ، ۲۰:۲۱
اسفندیار خدایی

دکتر محمدرضا تخشید، دکتر علی اکبر جعفری

The role of Jewish lobbies in US decision-making processes is one of the disputable issues in international relations, which has drawn attention of the politicians, researchers and students. The present paper examines the functions of Jewish lobbies in US decisions-making structure as well as effective factors involved in it. Based on heuristic statistics presented in the current paper, and relying on empirical facts and employing quasi laboratory method, it will be argued that reducing the influence of Jewish lobby to the executive structure of US and exclusive alliance between Washington-Tel Aviv is an incomplete reality. Rather, ‘Common Strategic Interests’ could help to better understand this relationship which puts the US national interests as pivotal element. Therefore, the main significance of Jewish lobby can be more assessed in domestic policy of America. Full Text

۰ نظر ۱۲ آبان ۹۵ ، ۰۸:۱۴
اسفندیار خدایی

دکتر حامد موسوی، دانشگاه تهران

The article uses neoclassical realism to analyze the evolution of US-Israeli relations from its modest beginnings in the 1940s and 50s, to its ‘special’ status today. It is argued that the United States only began to seriously support Israel after Washington decision makers started to perceive the Jewish State as an important proxy in fighting Soviet influence in the Middle East, particularly following the Six Day War of 1967. However with the end of the Cold War Israel’s worth in pursing American interests in the region quickly faded, a change that was, brought into sharp perspective when in the First Persian Gulf War, Israel became a liability for the Americans. The article further argues that in the long run the strategic interests of the US in the region and subsequently the net strategic value of Israel for achieving such interests will be the primary driving factor behind US foreign policy. As a result factors such as the personal convictions of American politicians, the Jewish-American vote and the Israeli lobby would only be able to delay and dampen the future deterioration of the ‘special’ relationship between Washington and Tel-Aviv. Full Text

۰ نظر ۱۲ آبان ۹۵ ، ۰۷:۴۲
اسفندیار خدایی

دکتر زینب قاسمی تاری، دانشگاه تهران، دانشکده مطالعات جهان

In the early twentieth century Iranian Studies began part of the classical academic model of Orientalism in the United States with a philological approach. Prominent universities and institutions in the US such as Harvard, Columbia, Stanford, Yale and UC Berkeley established departments of Iranian or Persian Studies. In the early programs more emphasis was given to the ancient Iranian civilization and language. A new approach emerged after the WWII and as a part of Middle Eastern Studies programs that attempted to study Iran from more modern and international academic perspective. Though Iranian studies became an independent field of study, it was the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution that changed Iranian Studies programs in the US drastically and gave it a political significance. The present paper offers a brief descriptive overview of the developments and evolutions of Iranian Studies programs in the United States and its different approaches in knowledge production toward Iran since its early years of establishment till the present time. Full Text

۰ نظر ۱۲ آبان ۹۵ ، ۰۷:۳۸
اسفندیار خدایی

عباس ترابی؛ کارشناس ارشد مطالعات آمریکا؛ دانشگاه تهران

TEHRAN, Aug. 12 (MNA) – Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has taken key steps toward the establishment of Caspian Economic Cooperation Organization. Iran has been experiencing tense relations with some of her southern neighbors, especially with its rival Saudi Arabia. As such, time has come for restoring bilateral relations with its northern neighbors, particularly Republic of Azerbaijan, based on goodwill and mutual understanding. Hassan Rouhani's August 7 meeting with his counterpart Ilham Aliyev in Baku would be a great opportunity for both countries in a time when oil prices have rocked down and both countries eye foreign investment.

۰ نظر ۲۲ مرداد ۹۵ ، ۲۳:۱۷
اسفندیار خدایی

پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد زهره اصفهانی؛ دانشکده مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران، بهمن 1394

استاد راهنما: دکتر حسن حسینی

Since 2005, energy outlook has changed in the United States due to development of shale resources and hydraulic fracturing. This development has led to increase of oil and gas production to the extent that some U.S. officials expect the United States to be a net energy exporter soo n. However environmentalists emphasize the disadvantages of hydraulic fracturing which pose risks for the environment and human health. This thesis is an attempt to investigate U.S. potential of being energy self-sufficient by means of shale resources. The thesis supposes that while shale oil and gas development and hydraulic fracturing can reduce U.S. imports nonetheless it is unlikely that U.S. shale can bring energy self-sufficiency by itself in a long term due to environmental and economic barriers and structural impediments. The research has been conducted based on a qualitative analysis of available documents by both opponents and proponents of shale development. The main concepts of the thesis have been outlined in three chapters: First, unconventional resources, hydraulic fracturing, and environmental impacts; second, trend of energy production and consumption in the United States; third, consequences of “shale statecraft” on U.S. national security. Full Text

 

۰ نظر ۰۹ مرداد ۹۵ ، ۱۱:۲۸
اسفندیار خدایی

مقاله علمی پژوهشی، آقای دکتر محمد علی موسوی و خانم دکتر حکیمه سقای بی ریا
The present article is a constructivist framing analysis of the RAND and Brookings production of expertise on U.S. policy toward Islam. While the duality of moderation vs. radicalism is present in the narrative of both think tanks، their divergent construction of the meaning of these concepts results in the creation of two distinct frames. For RAND، the U.S. government needs to take side in the war of ideas “within Islam،” actively engaging in “religion-building” by promoting the creation of localized moderate، modernist forms of Islam and building networks of moderate Muslims. A Cold-War-driven modernization mentality is at the heart of such understanding of U.S. relations with Islam and the Islamic world. For Brookings، though، a more pragmatic construction of Muslim politics renders the “Islamist dilemma” obsolete and necessitates U.S. government engagement with moderate Islamists. Brookings advises the U.S. government to forego efforts at converting Islamists into post-Islamists or liberal Islamists and rather opt for efforts to engage those Islamists who are found to be committed to the democratic process and to reject a resort to violence. Despite their differences، what binds the framing of RAND and Brookings together is their rejection of the political Islam that threatens the hegemony of the United States and Israel in the region، i.e. that of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its affiliate resistance Islamic groups.

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۰ نظر ۱۱ تیر ۹۵ ، ۰۰:۱۱
اسفندیار خدایی

مقالعه علمی پژوهشی خانم دکتر زینب قاسمی تاری

In the early twentieth century Iranian Studies began part of the classical academic model of Orientalism in the United States with a philological approach. Prominent universities and institutions in the US such as Harvard، Columbia، Stanford، Yale and UC Berkeley established departments of Iranian or Persian Studies. In the early programs more emphasis was given to the ancient Iranian civilization and language. A new approach emerged after the WWII and as a part of Middle Eastern Studies programs that attempted to study Iran from more modern and international academic perspective. Though Iranian studies became an independent field of study، it was the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution that changed Iranian Studies programs in the US drastically and gave it a political significance. The present paper offers a brief descriptive overview of the developments and evolutions of Iranian Studies programs in the United States and its different approaches in knowledge production toward Iran since its early years of establishment till the present time.

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۰ نظر ۱۱ تیر ۹۵ ، ۰۰:۰۳
اسفندیار خدایی

مقاله علمی پژوهشی؛ محمد خوش هیکل آزاد؛ دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات آمریکای شمالی

When Obama became the U.S. president، new policy toward war in Afghanistan and Iraq، that costs the U.S. dearly، was declared to respond to American’s needs and interests. The “Pivot” or “Rebalance” of power moved toward a larger region instead of the Middle East، e.g. the vast potential of the Asia Pacific region. In this light، the paper’s main question is “What is the importance of the Middle East in Obama’s foreign policy? And the response is “Obama’s policy toward Middle East is in decline for the rise of East Asia importance.” During Obama administration، the decline of the U.S. power and the perceived threat of china and Muslim radicalism forced him to deal with Iran as a regional power in the Middle East، and China as a regional power in the East Asia. Therefore، in a coherent strategy، Obama insisted to keep negotiations with Iran as the greatest strategic challenge in the Middle East. Accordingly، nuclear talks with Iran and also talks with Persian Gulf countries through Camp David in 2015، can be regarded as the U.S. willingness in GCC– Iran engagement. Simultaneously and more importantly، pivot to Asia is a “full spectrum force” i.e.، utilizing a smaller and more agile and advanced military force posture alongside with economic strength to fulfill U.S. economic need i.e.، jobs، export and investment in order to sustain U.S. global leadership in manage the rising China. Pivot to Asia is a formula for the 21th century that will empower U.S. in 22th century.

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۱ نظر ۱۰ تیر ۹۵ ، ۲۳:۱۹
اسفندیار خدایی

مقاله علمی پژوهشی، دکتر محمدعلی موسوی، اسفندیار خدایی

Iran joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as an observer member in 2005 and the year after applied for full membership. This application raised debates among SCO members, inside Iran and outside this organization in international politics. In the positive side, Iran's geostrategic importance and huge energy resources give impetus to SCO members. On the negative side, Iran’s challenge with the West, nuclear in particular, discourages SCO members to accept Iran at this juncture because they hesitate to pretend that they are standing against United States and the West. This article studies these debates in the theoretical framework of neo-realism and examines these events through historical analysis and according to their historical context. Considering the current international environment, membership of Iran in the SCO seems remote and very much depends, on the one hand on future progress of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear dossier, and on the other hand on relations between SCO members and the West.

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۰ نظر ۰۷ تیر ۹۵ ، ۱۲:۱۳
اسفندیار خدایی

MA Thesis in American Studies; Esfandiar Khodaee, University of Tehran

China and the United States have complicated and multifaceted relations. On one sidethey are trade partners and cooperate on common security and economic interests;on the other side they are competing and confronting over many economic and strategic issues. Since the referral of Iran nuclear dossier to the UN Security Council in 2006 and especially during President Obama’s first administration the Iran factor emerged among the top challenges between Washington and Beijing. For the United States an Iran with nuclear technology was regarded as the worst scenario since it would change the balance of power in the oil rich Middle East. Furthermore, according to Western discourse a nuclear Iran threatened the security of the US and its allies in this region. China followed its own interests in relations with Iran and had none of these concerns about Iranian peaceful nuclear programs. Beijing even had some interests in a powerful and resistant Iran to challenge US hegemony and secure the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. Unlike his predecessor, President Obama put the military option in the margin in dealing with Iran and concentrated on the sanction policy. In order to make sanctions effective the Obama administration required the cooperation from China as the first trade partner of Iran and used the policy of bargaining and pressure to make Beijing cooperate with the sanction policy. This study in the theoretical framework of neorealism and neoliberalism and through “documentary and archival analysis” and “Critical Discourse Analysis” methods tries to clarify the strategies which the Obama administration used to achieve China’s cooperation. In conclusion, although Obama’s carrot and stick policy worked to make China limit relations with Iran, Beijing is not the loser of the game; because China’s bold policy made US achievements costly and abortive. As long as there is a resistant Iran that challenges US policies in the Middle East, on one hand the United States cannot move to East Asia to fully concentrate on the grand policy of containment of China, on the other handan independent an resistant Iran makesthe US hegemony over oil resources incomplete so Washington cannot use the oil weapon to make China withdraw from its stances on a variety of issues. 

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۰ نظر ۰۹ خرداد ۹۵ ، ۱۴:۱۹
اسفندیار خدایی